Immigrating in Australia

I have dealt with a lot of Asians over the years; had relationships with them, met them on planes, in their own countries, had relationships with them. A great number of them want to travel abroad. A great number of them are ignorant about the journey upon which they will embark. Their ignorance stems from the fact:

1. They have little knowledge of Western society - the failings of their schools perhaps, or simply because there are many countries, and assumptions are likely about countries and opportunities. They might know the USA from relatives, but they don't know other countries.

2. They are misled by migration agents/brokers and friends, whose context is often very different. We all want to offer encouragement, but sometimes we do it in half-measure, so people leave for a foreign nation, and end up disappointed. Migration agents make money by placing you in other countries, after which point, they have been paid, and you are poorly positioned to take legal action against them. They might not be well-regulated, because governments have protected themselves, and they care little about you.

3. Their qualifications not reecognised. A great many Asians have qualifications in their own country which are not recognised. This places them in a difficult situation in their host country. If you are Japanese or Korean, maybe you can get a job in the host country's major cities because there are many tourists from your home country. Otherwise, without high English standards or local degree, you will surely struggle to find job. Do you want to end up in a dead-end job selling trickets to tourists. You can do that in the developing world. 

4. Learning English - It is expensive to study in the West; they charge you a premium as a foreigner to get a 'gold plate' accredited degree, and then yon need to study a vocational course. Why bother? You are starting from behind, with a Western debt legacy. 

5. Find a partner - Maybe you hope to meet a Western guy/girl. The problem is that you will encounter a great many insincere partners who just want to have sex. A cultural distinction can be a point of interest however, but the question is whether the partners have identified the fundamental differences in their values. Soon they might be confronting an inter-racial custody battle for children, and you are at a disadvantage in a legal system you cannot afford, understand, or count upon for support. 

6. Finding a job - It can take years to find a job. Unless your vocation is in demand, it can take years, and even they they might prejudicially give you the low-challenge jobs, or maybe your education is not recognised or as good. So from the start, you seem to struggling with challenges that no one else has to contend with.

7. Support for immigrants is often lacking. The welfare system was not designed for you; you don't have the same support as 'locals', even though you pay taxes. Having said this, many Asian communities have community groups to support their local migrant population, and they are a great source of support. If they are strong, they can aid to ensure government policy is fair. 

8. Expensive services in the West. You will pay high rent in the West; with little hope of ever being able to afford a house given that they are sold at 10x annual earnings; and with your poor English, maybe it will take you 30 years to get a house, and you will pay 50% of your income in rent. Schooling is expensive, and maybe you need to support family at home. 

There are other elements with Australia. Immigration is hard...but its harder in Australia because:

1. Property prices are high - You will be paying out a lot of money for clothes and rent; so you will end up sharing a box with a great many others in order to save money. If that is ok, then Australia offers a very appealing environment.

2. High fees - You will be extorted for wealth; as this is the nature of the Australian political system, where all minorities are squeezed by governments. So expect high education fees, high immigration fees. They are not user-pays; they are government extortion fees. 

We all have a bitter taste about our own countries; their decline in values. Anywhere in the world looks better than our own place. Sometimes you need to fight for what you believe where your message is strongest - in your own country - making use of existing relationships. The most important things in life are best achieved in your home country:

1. Career

2. Relationships

3. Internal (housing) environment

4. External environment 

Only this last one is better in the West because of the legacy of prosperity. But the most important elements are best in your own country. If you want the best, find the best in your country; don't migrate to the ends of the earth; its a false dream; migrate to somewhere where you will be appreciated. i.e. Your big cities are rich in culture and prosperity, and they will rapidly emerge. Within a few decades you will be able to holiday in the West, and you might not even want to.
If you must live in the West....you might suffer in Australia from the issues above...but I've never met anyone who ever regreted it. There was an American who came to Australia at $US0.80; left at $US0.50, only to see the currency rise back to $1.01. So choose your moments. I have written a similar article about migrating to NZ. There is little comparison. 

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Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com

The prospect of war: Australia and North Korea

According to the Sydney Morning Herald, Australia and South East Asia are apparently under threat from North Korea. According to Bob Carr, the foreign minister for the Australian Labor Party-led government, the American assistant secretary of state for East Asia and the Pacific, Dr Kurt Campbell has made this assertion. Julia Gillard is cordially invited to attend a heads of state meeting in South Korea to discuss peace.

This is a nonsense. This is political posturing as a precursor for war. This posturing is intended to assist the "anti-war" Labour government to 'sell war' with North Korea, and I suggest the same posturing will be made to convince people that action needs to be taken against Iran as well.

Don't get me wrong; I actually think there is huge justification for engaging with these states. The issue however is not whether it is justified; but whether our political leaders are 'playing with a straight bat'; or 'playing with a bad ball' to use a cricket analogy.

These two regimes have been allowed to assemble a defence system. There is actually good reason to think that these systems are not fully functioning. I fully expect North Korean missiles to fall out of the sky; but I also expect these regimes to be rolled very quickly if the Western military were to engage. Why? Well, its simply. North Korea is starting; and the political leadership in Iran is also very unpopular. There is good reason for thinking that support for these regimes will quickly fold if a concerted effort was brought to the issue. The approach to these two countries is different:

1. Seize control of Iranian oil interests after killing its aviation sector and destroying its nuclear armaments, and land to land and land-to-sea capacity. Place Iranian funds in a trust fund and use them to fight for democracy in the nation.

2. Knock out North Korean nuclear capacity. Whilst you might expect the North Korean military to display a formidable 'front' at first, expect them to collapse like a pack of cards, and to seek asylum in South Korea if they can.

The world ought to be accustomed to Western governments posturing to secure the support of the people. The issue is the Western political system which demands this type of 'manipulation'. The sad reality is that Western governments are manipulating our minds much as the North Koreans are using manipulation to secure the acquiescence of their people. There are important differences:

1. The North Korean government uses fear, intimidation; but mostly it uses propaganda and social pressure to ensure compliance.

2. The Western governments manipulate the press with certain media releases or precipitate certain action to bring about the result they want.

This case is interesting because we might expect that the North Korean leader might be open to negotiation and concessions because he is new to the job. His leadership is less 'entrenched' and I suspect he has less of a legacy of human rights abuses like his deceased father. This might be the bargaining chip of the West. The question is - how Westernised or enamoured is the new Korean leader with the West, and how strong is his relationship with the Chinese. If North Korea agrees to open its gates; after Myanmar has done, there is probably good reason to expect the same from Iran, the only other state to really present an 'imminent threat'.

The problem of course aside from these rogue states however is the manipulation of Western constituents. For while the focus of Western governments is on the injustices perpetrated by the rogue states; they remain remarkably indifferent to their own lack of moral integrity; and the inherent problems with Western democracies. They will happily tinker with these systems on the margin to give voters the hope of change; but really, this is just another façade. The West is fully prepared to manipulate voters to achieve their goals....which is to entrench their '2-party oligopolic position.

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Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com

Living and buying property in Japan - never easier

Australians have barely felt this recession because of the backlog of investment in the booming mining industry. BHP, Rio Tinto and others are leading a huge growth in productive capacity; their aim is to supply minerals to China before they are beaten by Mongolia; which neighbours China. The goods news is that Australia can service the coastal provinces whilst Mongolia can service the inland provinces. There is likely to be a nice competitive spread of business for China.

The culmination of this boom is likely to be Australians travelling more with an ever-increasing dollar. One appealing travel destination is likely to be JAPAN. Why Japan? Several reasons:

1. Japan offers the cheapest property in Asia. Yes, surprising but true, and now is the perfect time to buy. Why? Japanese live in fear. And having just had a recession, they are not likely to be focused on investment. Demand is subdued after an increase in GST was announced.

2. Foreigners are allowed to buy property in Japan on a tourist visa. That is what I did - a 5bed dormitory 1hr from Tokyo for Y2.8mil ($US30,000). Cheap as chips. They are even cheaper if you buy in rural areas, which are subject to depopulation. But I wanted to be close to one of the most exciting cities in the world.

3. Jetstar and Air Asia X are racing to bring to the market increasing flights from Australia to 4 cities in Japan. I personally consider Tokyo and Fukuoka the best cities - for different reasons.

4. The appeal of travelling around the world for your summer. You need not leave your summer behind; you can chase your summer. Better still, if you are into skiing, you can chase your winters as well...just not at the same time. hehe.

5. Cultural shock. Japan is a great intro to a foreign culture. Its safe, its fascinating, its exciting, the food is amazing. Its high tech and invigorates the senses.

6. Travel is cheap if you are a tourist. Stay for 3 months before renewing your visa, whether you fly to HK or just extend. If you have the right job, you can do this easily. For more than 2 decades Japan has been offering foreigns a very generous travel pass - travel by shinkanzen (very fast trains) or local trains for $A300 for a week - unlimited. Cheaper for longer periods. I would get the shinkanzen to a remote part of Japan, then a local train to some mountain temple for lunch. The shinkanzen would get me home by dinner time. I save on accommodation costs.

7. Foreclosed property - best of all, you can buy foreclosed property like me, for a fraction of market value because of poor market sentiment and/or depopulation. Japanese people want to live in the 'expensive' city centre; but you can buy 12+ year old houses very cheaply in fringe areas for under Y4mil ($US 45,000). Its through the court system, so its safe.

8. Activities - Japan is great for campervanning, kayaking, canoeing, mountain biking and touring. I use the train network to go canoeing because many trains go up scenic isolated river systems. Of course, you can buy a cheap 7yr Toyota for $3000 (like my ex-partner did), or you can jump on a train with an inflatable as I did. The train network will get you anywhere.

9. Culture - Japan is a fascinating culture. I personally love connecting with foreigners and Japanese people in their gaijin districts. For many Japanese the place is insufferable...but that's because they accept all this pressure. I once had a conservation with a grandpa who wanted to commit suicide. He said 'I envy you"...being able to do whatever you want to do". This is the freedom we love in the West...but this generation never felt able to do it; some of their children are doing it. Which is why there are many Asians in Australia, USA, NZ living the dream. You don't have to remain in a dead-end job, you just need to have a flexible job like English teaching, tattooing, graphic design, programming, karate instruction. I know people who are teaching forex to Japanese people in English. Yes, they want to learn in English because they want to "kill two birds with one stone". 'Old Japanese Proverb' hehe. :)

10. Strategy - Develop a strategy for what you want to achieve. You can buy fringe city property, rural peoperty, skifield property, even property on islands. Yes, some countries place a high value on 'island property', in Japan, there is no such premium. In Australia, I pay a $150K premium to live within 400km of a city, in Japan, the distance is 1hr from a city or 5km from a train station. The dynamics are different...so you are never really isolated from the city. How much do I pay for my 1hr train ticket to inner city - just Y420. I ride a bike to the local shopping centre, grocery store, a plethora of bars, take-aways. My favourite is Hokka Hokka Tei...far better in Japan than their foreign franchises.

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Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com

The performance of the Australian Labor Party in government

Achievements of the Australian Labor Party in government....read on.

1.. Carbon Tax – “There will be no carbon tax under the Government I lead.”

2.. Nation Broadband Network – $50 billion but no cost-benefit analysis

3.. Building the Education Revolution – The school halls fiasco

4.. Home Insulation Plan (Pink Batts) – Dumped after deaths and injuries

5. Citizens Assembly – Dumped

6.. Cash for Clunkers – Dumped

7.. Hospital Reform – Nothing

8.. Digital set-top boxes – Cheaper at Harvey Norman and now going obsolete

9.. Emissions Trading Scheme – Abandoned

10. Mining Tax – Continuing uncertainty for our miners

11. Livestock export ban to Indonesia – A massive over-reaction that decimated

the cattle industry and transport industry in Northern Australia

12. Detention Centres – Riots & massive cost blow-outs

13. East Timor ‘solution’ – Announced before agreed

14. Malaysia ‘solution’ – Scrapped because Malaysia is not a signatory to UN Human Rights Charter

15. Manus Island ‘solution’ – On the backburner

16.. Computers in Schools – $1.4 billion blow out; less than half delivered

17. Cutting Red Tape – 12,835 new regulations, only 58 repealed

18. Asia Pacific Community – Another expensive Rudd frolic. Going nowhere

19. Green Loans Program – Abandoned. Only 3.5% of promised loans delivered

20. Solar Homes & Communities plan – Shut down after $534 million blow out

21. Green Car Innovation Fund – Abandoned

22. Solar Credits Scheme – Scaled back

23. Green Start Program – Scrapped

24. Retooling for Climate Change Program – Abolished

25. Childcare Centres – Abandoned. 260 promised, only 38 delivered

26. Take a “meat axe”’ to the Public Service – 24,000 more public servants added

27. Murray Darling Basin Plan – back to the drawing board

28. 2020 Summit – Meaningless talkfest

29. Tax Summit – Deferred and downgraded

30. Population Policy – Sets no targets

31. Fuel Watch – Abandoned

32. Grocery Choice – Abandoned

33. $900 Stimulus cheques – Sent to dead people and overseas residents.

The majority spent on flat screen TV's and fast food.

34. Foreign Policy – In turmoil with Kevin (747) Rudd running riot flying around

the world spending more than the US Secretary of State

35. National Schools Solar Program – Closing two years early

36. Solar Hot Water Rebate – Abandoned

37. Oceanic Viking – Caved in

38. GP Super Clinics – 64 promised, only 11 operational

39. Defence Family Healthcare Clinics – 12 promised, none delivered

40. Trade Training Centres – 2650 promised, 70 operational

41. Bid for UN Security Council seat – An expensive Rudd frolic

42.. My School Website – Revamped but problems continue

43. National Curriculum – States in uproar - as they would be

44. Small Business Superannuation Clearing House – 99% of small businesses reject it

45. Indigenous Housing Program – way behind schedule

46. Rudd Bank – Went nowhere

47. Using cheap Chinese fabrics for Defense uniforms – Ditched

48. Innovation Ambassadors Program – junked

49. Six Submarines – none operational

50. Debt limit to be increased to $250 billion and rising – to pay for all of this and much more

Source: Email - much loved

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Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com

Australian travel preferences and habits

There is an interesting story about Australian travel spending and international travel habits or preferences. It provides some insight into where people are spending their holidays. It appears Australia is out of favour; no doubt this is because of the greater budgetary pressures of the recession as well as the relatively high AUD. Mind you, the AUD is off 10% - down from 1.07 t0 97c to the USD. The general buoyancy of the AUD of course explains the foreign holidays for Australians. Spending big whilst the currency is high.

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Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com

Australian property market - scary??

According to Harry Dent, the Australian property market 'could' halve in value - at least in overpriced areas like Sydney just like California because of the European debt crisis.

"In Sydney, the average house price is over nine times the average income, which is clearly unsustainable, Dent argues".

There are several problems with this story:

1. The probable correlation between a book sale and 'impending doom'....but I have not looked because I'm just cynical and its not a causal relationship anyway. You'd have to look at his arguments. Its possible that he's just ignorant.

2. Australia is in far better conditions than the United States

Australian debt is mostly private sector debt and its mostly underwritten by tangible assets - houses in areas where people want to live, and in a country which a great many people wish they could live. It is also a regulated property market, with government regulating land releases. The government is thus able to regulate prices by turning on the tap at two places - immigration or restriction of land supply. In contrast, Americans can move from a high demand centre like California to a low demand area like the fringes of Seattle or Sacramento and still keep a job. In Australia, you'd have to live 300km from Sydney to get cheap housing, i.e. Dunedoo or Taree. Yes, its extortion, but no one thinks of it like that.

The other big consideration is national income. Australia is well-positioned to supply commodities to the tiger nations of Asia, who are still growing at 5-10% per annum. We need to acknowledge that whilst the USA and Western nations are struggling, the developing world is undergoing an industrial revolution running at a faster pace than the one in the 1700s. The reason is clear - the absence or indifference to ineffectual regulation, and the impact of technology and structurally created cheap labour after decades of coercive statist government in this region. Look at Japan in the 1950s to 1970s; well China and India make a 20x bigger difference. US spending stimulated China; but rest assured that after an adjustment of say 5-7 years China will be making up for the foibles in the USA. Australia and Russia are in the best position to supply materials - relatively better than Brazil, Canada and South Africa. There are plans for mineral & energy investment in Australia of $750 billion - investments which could effectively double annual GDP. This is not going to occur overnight, but even if it takes 20 years, the capital inflows from China and elsewhere will be huge in itself, and for the 20mil people, it means more extortion. i.e. Immigrants will be ripped off as they pay full price for property. Except that will not care because they will have a job, and spare cash to send home to relatives in Asia.

This all means of course that Australia will have strong capital inflows and a strong dollar. Even if commodity prices or volumes come under some pressure, we need to appreciate that the Australian dollar will adjust accordingly. This market is secure. I think you can expect that governments will attempt to keep property prices stable, i.e. Expect property prices to move sideways for the next 10 years, or near so. With the Sydney market affordability index around 10x earnings - it is not going to fall, but with interest rates at low levels, I would not be expecting it to rise given the high levels of indebtedness and the return to conservative borrowing practices. This conservatism reflects foreign market factors rather than Australian considerations.

If you are considering buying a house in Australia; think again. You are buying into a political system based on extortion. If you do so, you simply need to find a rural town which is depopulating but finding work might be the greater concern. Try Taree, NSW or some of the wealthier rural towns based on cotton and beef. If you like beaches, try Grafton, maybe Kempsey (famous for its prison). Failing that; try NZ after renting for 5-10 years in Australia. In a decade, NZ will probably discover oil, and it will be as wealthy as Australia in relative terms. Of well, they live in hope, and its about as much as you can expect as well given the tyranny of majoritism.

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Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com

In Australia - size matters!

Never mind the housing boom in Australia; here is another angle. Australia is on average building the biggest homes in the world.

According to CommSec chief economist Craig James, the reason is:

"Certainly it makes sense that Australia builds bigger homes than in other countries, given that population density is far smaller than in other parts of the world".

Actually that is too much of a generalisation; and a very inaccurate one. There are plenty of countries with adequate space; the US being a prime example. I would suggest a different motivation:

1. Australia has more Greeks than most countries, and they have a liking for Colosseum and other such grandiose architectural features that adhore the facade of monumental displays of egotistical pretense.

2. Australia has a great many mining millionaires who got rich publishing false drilling results or false quarterly reports; and then let's not forget they have friends besting them in other industries. That is why they are called 'besties'.

Australia might have the lowest population density, but most of that land is tied up in reserves for the sake of aborigines and fauna. In fact, Australia has among the most restrictive zoning regulation in the world - despite the paradox of vast lands - which go some way towards explaining the ridiculously high prices for land in the country. i.e. 500m2 some 100km north of Sydney will cost $US220,000; then add another $150,000 for the house. You'd have to wonder why coastline is so valued given the 14,000 odd beaches in the country, but we are all compelled by our need for services, if not our desire to live near water.

I frankly can't believe that the Chief Economist at Commonwealth Bank said that our houses are bigger because of our low population density. No Craig, its because local government will not allow us to subdivide our land. i.e. We need to protect the trees to preserve the green credentials of Sydney. But then listen further and you will hear more gaffs from Craig:

"Gen Y places less importance in home ownership than past generations, preferring to maximise life experiences".

This is nonsense of course. Yes, apartments do have their advantages in terms of city proximity, easy of renting; but most Australians simply buy apartments because they can only afford the exorbitant $320-400K price tag for an apartment compared to $500-750K for a house & land. That is why many are moving 100kms to the Central or South Coast where they can still afford a house. This is pretty ignorant for a 'Chief economist' at a major bank. Aren't banks in the lending business? I guess he is in the securities department. But then aren't banks supposed to know something about the economy? Apparently credentials at Comsec don't include an education. But then I gathered that when I used to trade securities with them. Serious acts of incompetence cost me a great deal of money.

I guess the last time the size of Australian houses was so large was during the 1880s gold boom.

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Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com